I spent years perfecting OGOM in here.
Welcome to a new regular column from an old favourate. The Original Grumpy Old Man (OGOM).
This week OGOM takes the pundits to task about the Premier League title race and focuses on the consulation prize.
One of the problems that never goes away from English football is bad punditry, a long standing issue that pre-dates the Sky Sports revolution but something that media organisation specialises in. Within that gigantic pool of turgid nonsense grows well worn clique that rules the roost as seasons progress. 2009-10 already has its monster, it’s called “the race for 4th”, a suggestion that only 3 clubs can win the PL and everyone outside of the present incumbents of that position are playing for 4th (as if that position in itself is like winning something). Not only is this garbage annoying (and Tony Gale is presently leading the pack with use of the term), it is also short-sighted and plain wrong. There are 4 clubs in with a shout at the PL title, leaving another 4 clubs battling for 5th, and there is the irony, is 5th really worth it?
Let’s get the top 4 out of the way, it requires no signs of brain activity to have Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal as stick on qualifiers for the CL next season and more importantly in contention for the PL title. Of those 3 my brain and heart are pitching for the club presently in 3rd. So who is the fourth? Spurs maybe after all they occupy that position? Aston Villa lots of peoples tip over the last 3 seasons to break through? Liverpool, A club that seems to struggle with the idea they aren’t given a place in the CL based on history? Or even Birmingham City, in the mix before they spend their new investment? No of course not, its Manchester City, a new (and Phil McNulty take note) brilliant tactician for a manager, money to burn on replacing the rubbish Hughes signed, only 2 defeats all season and a newly shored up defence and (just as important here), no distractions like the Europa League. I will expand who will win the PL title race nearer the end but for now we just acknowledge the fight for the crown is 4 way and the subsequent jettisoning of the 4 not involved.
5th gets you what? Well it gets you the Europa League, a potentially 17 game (or more if in the qualifying rounds) cup competition. So far getting into it has brought Everton nothing but inconsistency, lots of injuries and the occasional humiliation at the hands of Portuguese clubs. To be fair to the toffees they at least care enough about the competition to put out decent teams, unlike Aston Villa who for the last two seasons have given it less respect than the Birmingham Senior Shield and it has shown in how they got eliminated. Given that Aston Villa are already resigned to being part of the 4 way fight for 5th it becomes an interesting discussion whether it might be in their best interests to finish 8th (and lose to Blackburn Rovers in the League Cup semi’s) and thus avoid having to plan for what they obviously consider an irritation. One thing’s for sure they never could be good enough to sustain a pitch at the top 4 with their strike force. The traditional post winter slump we expect from Villa could be enough to see them gain that non qualification slot.
Alternatively sometimes clubs do know how to treat qualification for the Europa League, they set up a squad to deal with that competition and also have some relative success in the PL. Obviously such a club isn’t a massive spender and thus can’t sustain a second pitch at qualifying via a League position (especially if they are going to lose away to Stoke City). It is a shame Fulham are not in the mix but that does leave space for a new kid on the block. Now Birmingham City are not a club I have much time for over the years but there is no doubting there tenacity this season in getting into the top 8 before they start spending their recent largesse. How McLeish has got the likes of Lee Bowyer and Steven Carr performing back to their early 00’s best is anyone’s guess, the signing of Benetiz has worked well and Joe Hart is a revelation to everyone (except Capello for some reason who can’t see it). With £40m to spend it looks like the blue-noses have their day in the sun to come (before the Newcastle United syndrome kicks in). Factor in the almost demonic desire of the fans to beat the local rivals and the prospect of Birmingham City finishing 7th (and showing up Steve Bruce’s record at St Andrews for what it was) becomes all too real.
Success and failure are relative concepts in this money rich, substance poor age. The most substance less club in the top 8 at the moment is the one with the biggest tradition of success, Liverpool. That lack of substance comes in its financial situation, the squad building qualities (or lack of them) in the present manager and in the heart and soul of most of their players. Rafa Benetiz has become this season’s most entertaining circus act (but one that wears thin very quickly). Any League position outside of the top 4 is failure, well actually much more than that, it’s the slippery slope to chaos and decline. Imagine Gerrard in Italy (just go thug) and Torres recuperating, from the breakdown Benetiz is sending him to, on the Real Madrid benches, that is the future of the Anfield (soon not to be Stanley Park) club. To be honest I think I’m being generous suggesting 6th, it matters not; the consequences are the same for all the substance less components. As an aside it will be funny to watch.
So by definition you know who I think will finish 5th, Spurs. But wait, this is predicated that either the tax evasion case against Redknapp doesn’t come to court for full consideration until May or that the club have a decent temporary manager lined up if he is found guilty before then and has to resign (and I don’t mean Joe Jordon or Kevin Bond). Spurs, whilst not having enough in the creative department to make the PL title a 5 way fight, do have a squad that allows them to keep positions fresh. Redknapp will do his usually wheeler-dealing in January, out goes Mexicans and Russians, in will come Peckham boys and African up and comings. No cup distractions after the conquerors of Manchester United visit White Hart Lane (well you didn’t think I’d not get that in did you) will allow Spurs to recover from the occasional significant defeat to ring up enough wins to finish in 5th with a little to spare. The only questions are who will manage them next season and will they want a separate squad for the Europa League games?
So there you have it, not a ferret bag fight for 4th, just a little skirmish for a smaller prize. Of course there are other ways into the Europa League, like winning the FA Cup, this year I’m plumping for Roberto Martinez making up for a stop-start League campaign by making Dave Whelan cry with happiness at Wembley (in front of 35k plastic Wigan fans who didn’t attend the Hull City game). The other route is the League Cup, which is going to one of the Manchester clubs, City hopefully but it won’t bother me if the Salford Mercenaries get it and it deludes them they are still great. Meanwhile above the line on the Sky Sports League tables the real interest is happening as 4 clubs make this year’s PL title race the closest and widest yet.
As I have already indicated, I’m sticking with Arsenal to overcome a massive surge from Manchester City to take the title (and at the same time save the PL from the curse of the big spending winners). The third place will be taken by the other Manchester club mainly because the 11 clubs involved in the relegation dog-fight keep sending B teams to face them at Old Trafford. That leaves a disappointed Chelsea to just about stop Abramovich from throwing himself in the sea after the CL eludes them at the hands of Inter in the final (but alas if Roman doesn’t drown then Ancelotti is sleeping with the fishes in terms of his stay at Stamford Bridge). Actually if that outcome does accrue, maybe Tony Gale and the rest of the putrid pundits should keep referencing “the race for 4th” only rename it the slope to 4th!
